Ireland vs Italy Predictions - Italy to run Ireland close in Six Nations

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 1 hour ago

Ralph Staniforth 1 hour ago

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Ireland has won their last 15 matches against Italy but shows signs of decline recently.
Italy's improving form includes recent wins against big teams like Australia and South Africa.
Prediction: Italy is expected to challenge Ireland and close the 17.5-point handicap margin.

Italy come into the game off a morale boosting win over Scotland (Getty Images)

Ireland vs Italy Predictions

All the talk this week has been about Ireland bouncing back from their poor performance last week, but the reality is that they just aren’t the side they were two or three years ago. While they still possess plenty of quality, I don’t see them thrashing a very confident Italian side.

Ireland vs Italy Predictions
Head to Head
Ireland Form
Italy Form
Ireland vs Italy Lineups & Team News

Italy are backed to get within the 17.5 handicap.

Ireland have won their last 15 matches against Italy.
Ireland have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
Italy have won 2 of their last 3 matches.
Italy lost by 5 points to Ireland in 2025.

Head to Head

Ireland have won their last 15 matches against Italy with Italy’s last win coming in 2013. Last season, in Rome, Ireland beat Italy 22-17.

Ireland Form

Ireland, one of the top sides in world rugby over the last five or six years, have hit a stumbling block. The signs were there last year already and last weekend in Paris proved the decline.

The Irish finished second in the 2025 Six Nations but were well beaten at home by France in their only defeat. In November 2025, South Africa outplayed Ireland and annihilated their scrum after New Zealand also got the better of the former world No.1 side.

Last Thursday, Ireland traveled to Paris for their 2026 Six Nations opener, a game that they were expected to challenge in. However, they were never in the match as France raced into a huge lead by half time. Despite some fight in the second half, Ireland went down 36-14.

Italy Form

Italian rugby continues to improve and every year they seem to claim more wins against big nations. Last season, while the Six Nations didn’t go great, they did beat Australia and ran South Africa close for 60 minutes.

Last weekend saw Italy take another big step, beating Scotland in Rome. It wasn’t a great game, but it was played in very heavy rain, which made it tough for both sides.

Italy came away with an impressive 18-15 win, and they will feel like challenging Ireland in Dublin is possible.

Ireland vs Italy Lineups & Team News

Ireland: 15 Jamie Osborne, 14 Robert Baloucoune, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Stuart McCloskey, 11 James Lowe, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Craig Casey, 8 Jack Conan, 7 Caelan Doris (captain), 6 Cormac Izuchukwu, 5 James Ryan, 4 Joe McCarthy, 3 Thomas Clarkson, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Jeremy Loughman.

Replacements: 16 Rónan Kelleher, 17 Tom O’Toole, 18 Tadhg Furlong, 19 Edwin Edogbo, 20 Tadhg Beirne, 21 Nick Timoney, 22 Jamison Gibson-Park, 23 Jack Crowley.

Ireland head coach, Andy Farrell has made sweeping changes to the side for this weekend after a very poor showing in Paris. At the team announcement, he was happy with preparation this week.

“We’re very happy because nobody was holding back. There was a lot of honesty and no excuses. We tried to get back to simplifying things down and to understand what we stand for as a team. You always think that preparations are going right, but until you get a smack in the face like we did in Paris, you find out about yourselves. The good thing is, nine days later, we get another crack at it.”

Italy: 15 Lorenzo Pani, 14 Louis Lynagh, 13 Leonardo Marin, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Alessandro Fusco, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Manuel Zuliani, 6 Michele Lamaro (captain), 5 Andrea Zambonin, 4 Niccolo Cannone, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 1 Danilo Fischetti.

Replacements: 16 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Muhamed Hasa, 19 Federico Ruzza, 20 Riccardo Favretto, 21 David Odiase, 22 Alessandro Garbisi, 23 Paolo Odogwu.

Gonzalo Quesada has named Lorenzo Pani in the side for the first time in two years. He is the only change to the Italian side. Quesada told reporters, “We’ve decided to put our faith in Lorenzo Pani. He worked hard in November, training the entire time with the national team without ever playing. Then he improved a lot and is coming off two or three excellent matches with Zebre. Some of his qualities will be important on Saturday.”

Verdict

Ireland v Italy

Italy have been consistent over the last 12 months and can get within 17.5 points of Ireland.

Italy +17.5

Handicap

@1.91 - 5 Units

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