South Africa vs New Zealand 4th Test - Springboks to clinch series in Baltimore

Ralph Staniforth

Editor

Last updated: 12 Sep 2026

Ralph Staniforth 12 Sep 2026

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South Africa leads series 2-1 with set piece dominance.
All Blacks must win to level series but struggle against Boks' scrum.
Springboks tipped to cover -6.5 handicap and clinch series win.

Expired

South Africa can secure series win (Getty Images)

South Africa vs New Zealand 4th Test Predictions

South Africa take a 2-1 lead into this final match of the series after winning the second and third tests. This fixture offers something unique with it being played in Baltimore, USA, which New Zealand will hope they can take advantage of.

South Africa vs New Zealand 4th Test Predictions
Head to Head
South Africa Form
New Zealand Form

While the All Blacks have come close over the last two matches, it has been late points that got them there with South Africa dominating much of the match. I expect the Springboks to win again, this time by more than a score.

South Africa have won 14 of their last 15 matches.
South Africa have won 6 of their last 8 matches against New Zealand.
New Zealand have lost their last 2 matches.

Head to Head

New Zealand still hold a comfortable advantage overall but in recent years the Springboks have dominated.

South Africa Form

South Africa lead the series 2-1 and have bounced back well after losing the first Test. They have been largely dominant in the matches, but have allowed the All Blacks to score late points in both games.

The Springboks have not been at their best in this series either, but their set piece dominance has carried them throughout. That is unlikely to change in Baltimore with New Zealand seemingly having no answer to the Boks scrum.

It is clear how serious Rassie Erasmus has taken this series. Usually he rotates a lot but has kept largely the same side for all three matches and has yet again made no unforced changes.

New Zealand Form

New Zealand enter this fourth test as a must-win just to level the series after they won the opening match of the series. At Ellis Park in the opener, New Zealand held on for the first 55 minutes before pulling away in the final quarter.

However, in the subsequent two matches, South Africa made their early dominance count enough to build a lead going into the final 20 minutes. That said, the All Blacks are in a better space than they were 12 months ago with Dave Rennie bringing back a faster type of game.

New Zealand will have to find a way to nullify the Springbok set piece though, if they are to level the series. That has been the biggest issue, handing the Springboks penalties, territory and points with the scrum going back at a rate of knots.

Verdict

South Africa v New Zealand 4th Test

South Africa are backed to cover the -6.5 handicap.

South Africa -6.5

Handicap

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Ralph Staniforth is a South African sports journalist, editor and betting writer who has worked in sports media since 2012.

With a background in Sports Science, he has covered a wide range of sports and interviewed leading players and coaches across South African rugby, cricket and football.

His sports betting work covers both South African and international markets, combining his knowledge of sport with extensive experience analysing fixtures, teams, form and betting markets.

Ralph specialises in football and rugby, while also covering cricket, tennis and golf. His work includes match previews, betting tips, betting guides and broader analysis of the sports betting industry.

You can find more from Ralph at Muckrack and LinkedIn.