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South Africa vs New Zealand Predictions - All Blacks targeting victory at Ellis Park

Ralph Staniforth

Editor

Last updated: 21 Aug 2026

Ralph Staniforth 21 Aug 2026

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Springboks favored but may be underprepared.
All Blacks tipped to cover +7.5 handicap or cause upset.
Team news pending; both have key players returning from injury.

Expired

Tight contest expected in first test (Getty Images)

South Africa vs New Zealand Predictions

The Rugby's Greatest Rivalry tour finally gets down to business this Saturday when 10bet Ellis Park hosts the first Test between South Africa and New Zealand. It is a four-match series, with three played in South Africa and one in Baltimore, USA.

South Africa vs New Zealand Predictions
Head to Head
South Africa Form
New Zealand Form
Springboks vs All Blacks Team News

South Africa are favourites but may be short on game time while New Zealand will target this first Test to gain some momentum. They've looked good in the warmup fixtures, but this. will be the true test for the men in black.

The Springboks should have the quality to win the series, but for me, the All Blacks only chance is to win this opener against an undercooked South African side. I am tilting towards New Zealand on +7.5.

South Africa have won their last 12 matches.
South Africa have won 5 of their last 6 matches against New Zealand.
South Africa beat New Zealand 43-10 in their last encounter.
New Zealand have won their last 6 matches (including 3 warmup games)

Head to Head

New Zealand have the overall win record against South Africa but in more recent times, South Africa have dominated, winning five of their last six against the All Blacks.

Full breakdown of South Africa vs New Zealand history and head to head.

South Africa Form

The Springboks are on a 12-match unbeaten run currently and sit comfortably at the top of the world rankings. They are also two-time defending world champions and favourites to win the 2027 Rugby World Cup in Australia.

However, the green and gold may be slightly undercooked having just played one warmup game ahead of this tour. That fixture in Argentina also saw Rassie Erasmus opt to give players some game time that had returned from injuries after months on the sideline - the performance was very rusty, as expected as they won 17-10.

During the Nations Championship earlier this year, the Bokke cruised past England and Wales while Scotland put up much more of a fight. It must be said that Erasmus changed his team plenty, giving young players a chance as well, so it is hard to say what the Springboks are like at full strength currently.

New Zealand Form

Dave Rennie will be pleased with the start he has made to his coaching tenure at the All Blacks. Three Nations Championship wins in July, followed by comfortable wins against the South Africa URC franchises.

There were always going to be teething problems for the All Blacks, and there certainly was as they struggled past an under strength French side, only put Italy away in the final quarter before a good performance to beat Ireland.

The Stormers and Bulls have shown some fight in the warmup games as well, giving the All Blacks a decent contest, but without their star players, the franchises were always going to struggle. Nevertheless, New Zealand will benefit immensely from those minutes and may just have the edge in terms of preparation heading in Ellis Park on Saturday.

Springboks vs All Blacks Team News

Siya Kolisi is fit but Rassie Erasmus has not added him to the squad for Saturday, instead preferring in-form Paul de Villiers. Sacha-Feinberg Mngomezulu starts at flyhalf with Libbok on the bench - there is no Pollard in the squad.

For New Zealand, Savea, Roigard and Jordan start despite not playing a minute of the warmup games on tour. Both sides have plenty fo quality but also big players who lack minutes in recent weeks. It could be a deciding factor.

Verdict

South Africa v New Zealand

I am backing New Zealand on the +7.5 handicap, and if they are that close, it may be worth a small layout on an upset win at Ellis Park.

New Zealand +7.5

Handicap

@1,80 - 3 Units

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New Zealand Win

Result

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Ralph Staniforth is a South African sports journalist, editor and betting writer who has worked in sports media since 2012.

With a background in Sports Science, he has covered a wide range of sports and interviewed leading players and coaches across South African rugby, cricket and football.

His sports betting work covers both South African and international markets, combining his knowledge of sport with extensive experience analysing fixtures, teams, form and betting markets.

Ralph specialises in football and rugby, while also covering cricket, tennis and golf. His work includes match previews, betting tips, betting guides and broader analysis of the sports betting industry.

You can find more from Ralph at Muckrack and LinkedIn.