South Africa vs New Zealand Predictions - All Blacks targeting victory at Ellis Park

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 50 minutes ago

Ralph Staniforth 50 minutes ago

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Springboks favored but may be underprepared.
All Blacks tipped to cover +7.5 handicap or cause upset.
Team news pending; both have key players returning from injury.

Tight contest expected in first test (Getty Images)

South Africa vs New Zealand Predictions

The Rugby's Greatest Rivalry tour finally gets down to business this Saturday when 10bet Ellis Park hosts the first Test between South Africa and New Zealand. It is a four-match series, with three played in South Africa and one in Baltimore, USA.

South Africa vs New Zealand Predictions
Head to Head
South Africa Form
New Zealand Form
Springboks vs All Blacks Team News

South Africa are favourites but may be short on game time while New Zealand will target this first Test to gain some momentum. They've looked good in the warmup fixtures, but this. will be the true test for the men in black.

The Springboks should have the quality to win the series, but for me, the All Blacks only chance is to win this opener against an undercooked South African side. I am tilting towards New Zealand on +7.5.

South Africa have won their last 12 matches.
South Africa have won 5 of their last 6 matches against New Zealand.
South Africa beat New Zealand 43-10 in their last encounter.
New Zealand have won their last 6 matches (including 3 warmup games)

Head to Head

New Zealand have the overall win record against South Africa but in more recent times, South Africa have dominated, winning five of their last six against the All Blacks.

Full breakdown of South Africa vs New Zealand history and head to head.

South Africa Form

The Springboks are on a 12-match unbeaten run currently and sit comfortably at the top of the world rankings. They are also two-time defending world champions and favourites to win the 2027 Rugby World Cup in Australia.

However, the green and gold may be slightly undercooked having just played one warmup game ahead of this tour. That fixture in Argentina also saw Rassie Erasmus opt to give players some game time that had returned from injuries after months on the sideline - the performance was very rusty, as expected as they won 17-10.

During the Nations Championship earlier this year, the Bokke cruised past England and Wales while Scotland put up much more of a fight. It must be said that Erasmus changed his team plenty, giving young players a chance as well, so it is hard to say what the Springboks are like at full strength currently.

New Zealand Form

Dave Rennie will be pleased with the start he has made to his coaching tenure at the All Blacks. Three Nations Championship wins in July, followed by comfortable wins against the South Africa URC franchises.

There were always going to be teething problems for the All Blacks, and there certainly was as they struggled past an under strength French side, only put Italy away in the final quarter before a good performance to beat Ireland.

The Stormers and Bulls have shown some fight in the warmup games as well, giving the All Blacks a decent contest, but without their star players, the franchises were always going to struggle. Nevertheless, New Zealand will benefit immensely from those minutes and may just have the edge in terms of preparation heading in Ellis Park on Saturday.

Springboks vs All Blacks Team News

The teams will be announced later on Thursday but there are interesting topics for both sides to look at. New Zealand's try scoring machine, Will Jordan hasn't played a minute of rugby on tour due to injury, but he may be passed fit for this fixture.

South Africa have Eben Etzebeth and Sacha-Feinberg Mngomezulu available, but they were both rusty against Argentina, and may have to settle for spots on the bench.

Verdict

South Africa v New Zealand

I am backing New Zealand on the +7.5 handicap, and if they are that close, it may be worth a small layout on an upset win at Ellis Park.

New Zealand +7.5

Handicap

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New Zealand Win

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Ralph is from South Africa and studied Sports Science post school at ETA (Education Teachers Academy) in Cape Town.

He has always had a great passion for sport and this led him into the world of sports journalism, while coaching on the side. Since 2012 Ralph has worked as a journalist and covered many topics from business to sport.

Over the last seven years he has interviewed numerous top rugby and cricket players and coaches in South Africa.

Ralph has been betting on sports for the last ten years. He’s knowledgeable on numerous topics including football, rugby, cricket, tennis and golf.

He supports Manchester United (football), Cheetahs (rugby), Knights (cricket) and has a newly found appreciation for Dominic Thiem on the tennis courts.