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Rebels vs Brumbies Predictions & Tips - Rebels have what it takes to down Brumbies

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 16 Apr 2021

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Ralph Staniforth 16 Apr 2021

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Rebels vs Brumbies predictions for Sunday’s Super Rugby AU clash
Fixture is being played at 06:00 SAST at the AAMI Park
Rebels have won their last 4 home meetings with the Brumbies
I'm tipping the Rebels to lose by less than 5 points
Betting tips, predictions and team news for Rebels vs Brumbies

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Rebels vs Brumbies Predictions

The Rebels are a strong side defensively, but their attack is a problem area. They do, however, have a good record against the Brumbies at home, so I can see them giving the Canberra side a tough 80 minutes. My best bet is for the Rebels to lose by less than five, but a home win should not be ruled out.

Rebels have won their last 4 home matches against the Brumbies.
Rebels lost by less than 5 points in their last match against the Brumbies.
Rebels have won or loss by less than 4 points in 5 of their last 6 matches.
Brumbies have scored the most (33) tries in Super Rugby AU.

Head to Head

The Brumbies hold a 15-8 advantage over the Rebels in their last 23 Super Rugby matches.

Last season they each won their home matches against each other. The Brumbies won 31-23 in Canberra while the Rebels 30-12 in Melbourne in their last match.

Rebels Form

The Rebels are currently in third place, one point ahead of the Western Force. They will be keen to hold onto this spot with the third placed side facing the second placed side for a place in the final later in the competition.

Super Rugby AU started slowly for the Rebels as they suffered narrow defeats to the Reds and Brumbies. They bounced back with victories over the Waratahs (33-13) and the Force (10-7) but then lost 44-19 at home to the Reds.

Last week the Rebels took another big blow as the Western Force came to Melbourne and won 16-15. That has opened up the final playoff spot significantly.

The Rebels have struggled hugely on attack with only eight tries in six matches this season. Compare that to the Brumbies who have scored 33 and the Reds 30.

What has kept the Rebels alive is their defence. They have conceded the least points (131) in Super Rugby AU.

Rebels Injuries & Team News

The Rebels have made a few changes to their side for this massive match. Campbell Magnay will start at inside centre and Tim Pincus at fullback. Reece Hodge misses out completely through injury.

In the forward pack, Matt Gibbon will start at prop ahead of Cabous Eloff.

Brumbies Form

The Brumbies have little to play for in second place. They can no longer catch the Reds at the top of the table and cannot be caught by the Rebels below them. They will host the third placed side in three weeks for a place in the final.

After winning Super Rugby AU last season, the Brumbies will be disappointed with how this season has gone. Their only defeats have come at the hands of the Reds – both by two points – but they have not hit the heights of last season.

The Brumbies narrowly beat the Waratahs 24-22 two weeks ago but then lost 24-22 at the Reds last week. It was a match the Brumbies should have won, much like the one earlier in the season against the Reds.

Brumbies Injuries & Team News

Bayley Kuenzle makes a comeback for the Brumbies this week at inside centre while Ryan Lonergan gets an opportunity ahead of Nick White at scrumhalf.

There are three changes in the forward pack with Rory Scott and James Tucker starting in the loose trio, and Scott Sio taking over from James Slipper at prop.

Rebels vs Brumbies Live Stream FAQ

Where can I watch the Rebels vs Brumbies live stream?

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Verdict

Rebels v Brumbies

Rebels have a very solid record against the Brumbies in Melbourne, winning the last four meetings of the sides. I'm tipping the hosts to get within five points of the Canberra side, while a home win should not be ruled out.

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Ralph is from South Africa and studied Sports Science post school at ETA (Education Teachers Academy) in Cape Town.

He has always had a great passion for sport and this led him into the world of sports journalism, while coaching on the side. Since 2012 Ralph has worked as a journalist and covered many topics from business to sport.

Over the last seven years he has interviewed numerous top rugby and cricket players and coaches in South Africa.

Ralph has been betting on sports for the last ten years. He’s knowledgeable on numerous topics including football, rugby, cricket, tennis and golf.

He supports Manchester United (football), Cheetahs (rugby), Knights (cricket) and has a newly found appreciation for Dominic Thiem on the tennis courts.