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Manawatu vs Canterbury Predictions - Canterbury to extend record over Manawatu

Brad Newcomb

Editor

Last updated: 30 Sep 2026

Brad Newcomb 30 Sep 2026

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Canterbury have won 5 straight against Manawatu.
Manawatu must win final match to stay in playoff contention, but have struggled in this matchup.
Canterbury are predicted to cover the -9.5 handicap.

Expired

Canterbury are on a winning streak against Manawatu (Getty Images)

Manawatu have been in solid form lately and must win their final fixture to keep their chances of making the play-offs alive. Canterbury will be aiming to finish the regular season at the top of the NPC standings.

Canterbury have won 4 consecutive matches.
Canterbury have won 5 consecutive games against Manawatu.
Manawatu have lost 3 of their last 4 home matches to Canterbury.

Head to Head

Canterbury have the advantage over Manawatu, with nine victories to two in 11 meetings in the National Provincial Championship.

Manawatu Form

The Manawatu Turbos scored two converted tries in the first half against Auckland last weekend to lead 14-12 at half-time.

In the second half, Manawatu played well, scoring four tries and three conversions to beat Auckland 40-34 away from home.

Before that performance, the Turbos lost 40-14 to Northland away from home, edged Southland 36-35 at home and lost 29-27 to Otago at home and 59-77 to Hawke's Bay away, respectively, and then beat North Harbour 43-40 at home and Bay of Plenty 29-12 away before losing 36-27 away to Waikato.

Manawatu are ninth in the National Provincial Championship standings with 25 points after nine games.

Manawatu will be pleased to have picked up vital points in their previous fixture and must win their final match of the regular season to have a chance of making the play-offs, but they have struggled against Canterbury recently, losing five in a row.

Canterbury Form

Canterbury scored three tries and a conversion in the first half against Southland last weekend to lead 17-7 at the break.

Canterbury scored an additional three tries and a conversion in the second half to register a 34-21 home victory over Southland.

Earlier in their NPC season, the Red and Blacks beat Auckland 38-31 at home, Otago 19-15 away, defeated Bay of Plenty 33-28 at home, and lost 40-26 away to Taranaki before defeating Waikato 36-14 away, Wellington 66-19 at home, and North Harbour 25-24 away.

Canterbury are second in the National Provincial Championship table with 35 points after nine matches.

Canterbury have an opportunity to finish their season first in the standings, as they have been performing well lately, winning four consecutive games and they have secured three victories in their last four meetings against Manawatu.

Team News

Manawatu Turbos

Mosese Bason, Raymond Tuputupu, Liam O'Connor, Rory Woods, Jai Tamati, and Feleti Sae-Taʻufoʻou each crossed the try line against Auckland last weekend.

Liam O'Connor landed three conversions in the match, while Drew Wild and Reece MacDonald kicked over a conversion each.

Starting XV: Malakai Hala-Ngata, Raymond Tuputupu, Flyn Yates, Robert Harley, Taine Roriri, Te Kamaka Howden (C), Mosese Bason, Brayden Iose, Doug Philipson, Liam O’Connor, John Tapueluelu, James Tofa, Kyle Brown, Taniela Filimone, Drew Wild

Replacements: Mesulame Dolokoto, Liam Pratt, Feleti Sae Ta’ufo’ou, Reuben Allen, Samuel Johnson, Jai Tamati, George Worboys, Ngani Laumape

Canterbury

Gus Brown scored a brace against Southland last weekend.

Corey Kellow, Ngane Punivai, Finlay Brewis, and Ollie Burra scored a try each against Southland.

James White and Chay Fihaki kicked over a conversion each.

Starting XV: Finlay Brewis, George Bell, Gus Brown, Tahlor Cahill, Sam Darry, Xavier Treacy, Corey Kellow, Dominic Gardiner (C), Louie Chapman, Andrew Knewstubb, Ngatungane Punivai, Jone Rova, Dallas McLeod, Kurtis Macdonald, Chay Fihaki

Replacements: Josh Findlay, Lewis Ponini, Lachie Gunson, Liam Jack, Torian Barnes, Tyson Belworthy, Macklan Robertson, James Cameron

Verdict

Manawatu v Canterbury

Canterbury have often defeated Manawatu in recent seasons and are tipped to cover the -9.5 handicap.

Canterbury -9.5

Handicap

@1,91 - 3 Units

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Brad graduated from the University of South Africa with a Bcom-Management Accounting degree and has a financial background.

His love of sport has seen him venture down the road of researching sporting history for the past several years, specifically boxing, cricket and football.

Other sports of particular interest are golf, tennis, horse racing and motorsports.

Additionally, he spends his time researching the military history of his home country of South Africa.

He is an ardent Liverpool supporter and is known to DJ and release music on occasion.