Mali vs Senegal Predictions - Senegal to secure Africa Cup of Nations semi-final berth

John Eastwood

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Last updated: 06 Jan 2026

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John Eastwood 06 Jan 2026

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Mali progresses with draws; Senegal shows dominant form.
Senegal has history of success against Mali.
Prediction favors Senegal winning 2-0 in quarter-finals.

Senegal have scored 10 goals in four games the 2025 Africa Cup Of Nations (Getty)

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Mali vs Senegal Predictions

Mali simply don't have the quality here. They drew all three group games and were fortunate to progress. They then drew their round of 16 game against Tunisia to advance on penalties. Their luck is tipped to run out.

Mali vs Senegal Predictions
Head to Head
Mali Form
Mali Predicted Lineup & News
Senegal Form
Senegal Predicted Lineup & News

Mali have failed to score in 7 of their last 14 matches.
Senegal have won 4 of their last 5 matches against Mali.
Senegal have won 8 of their last 10 matches.
Senegal have won to nil in 5 of their last 8 matches.
Senegal have won by 2+ goals in 6 of their last 8 matches.

Head to Head

Mali have only managed two wins against Senegal in 15 encounters. Senegal have won seven with six draws.

Mali Form

Mali are yet to win at AFCON, reaching the quarter-finals after four consecutive draws.

Tom Saintfiet’s side conceded in the 91st minute to draw 1-1 against Zambia. Lassine Sinayoko’s penalty earned a 1-1 draw against Morocco, a fortunate result after ending with 0.91-2.82 xG.

The Eagles had 15-3 shots in a 0-0 draw against Comoros, Amadou Haidara sent off late on as they ended with 0.95-0.12 xG. The result saw them finish second in Group A.

Woyo Coulibaly was sent off against Tunisia and they fell behind in the 88th minute. It all looked to be over until Sinayoko’s late penalty took it to extra time, Mali taking it to a penalty shootout where they prevailed.

Saintfiet discussed the contest and appears to be relishing the underdog status his side are facing in the competition, saying: "I am proud of the goalkeeper and of all the players. Before the match, I told them that they are champions. If we had played with 11 players, we might have had even more advantages.

"After the red card, we remained calm and adapted to the situation, because football is also played with intelligence. We prepared very well for the match against Tunisia, and the players knew exactly what they were doing.

"We will face Senegal in the quarter-finals. Senegal will be the favourites, just as Morocco and Tunisia were in our previous matches. We have a clear objective, which is to remain in the competition."

Mali Predicted Lineup & News

Mali (4-2-3-1) Djigui Diarra; Fode Doucoure, Abdoulaye Diaby, Ousmane Camara, Amadou Dante; Yves Bissouma, Aliou Dieng; Mamadou Sangare, Lassana Coulibaly, Dorgeles Nene; Lassine Sinayoko

Wayo Coulibaly is suspended after his red card against Tunisia, Fode Doucoure to start at right-back. Midfielder Amadou Haidara returns from a ban.

Sikou Niakate hasn’t features in the tournament but Hamari Traore came off the bench late on in the Round of 16 and get more minutes here.

Senegal Form

Senegal had a confident start at AFCON, Nicolas Jackson scoring two goals in a 3-0 victory over Botswana. They fell behind against DR Congo, Sadio Mane equalising in a 1-1 draw.

Pape Thiaw’s side ended the group stage with a 3-0 win against Benin. They played the final 20 minutes without Kalidou Koulibaly who received a straight red card, Abdoulaye Seck, Habib Diallo and Cherif Ndiaye finding the net.

The Lions of Teranga conceded an early goal against Sudan in the Round of 16. They turned it around in style, Pape Gueye scoring twice before half-time and Ibrahim Mbaye coming off the bench to wrap up a 3-1 victory.

Thiaw reacted to the victory by saying: "We played against this very disciplined Sudan team and they showed that they got to stage by merit. We needed to dig deep to come from a goal down to be able to win the match.

"I give credit to my players for the way they focused on the game and recovered to win the match. Now we will focus on the next match by correcting some of the mistakes we noted in this game and pursue our goals with intensity."

Senegal Predicted Lineup & News

Senegal (4-3-3) Edouard Mendy; Krepin Diatta, Kalidou Koulibaly, Moussa Niakhate, Ismail Jakobs; Habib Diarra, Idrissa Gueye, Pape Gueye; Ismaila Sarr, Nicolas Jackson, Sadio Mane

Kalidou Koulibaly returns from suspension and should replace Abdoulaye Seck in central defence.

Verdict

Mali v Senegal

Senegal have scored ten goals at the Africa Cup of Nations, Mali managing to find the net just three times, two from the penalty spot. I am backing the Lions of Teranga to be too good in the quarter-finals and win to nil.

Senegal Win

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