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Real Madrid vs Arsenal Predictions - Gunners to advance with first leg lead

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 14 Apr 2025

Ralph Staniforth 14 Apr 2025

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Arsenal leads 3-0 after a commanding home victory over Real Madrid in the Champions League quarter-final first leg.
Real Madrid is in inconsistent form, with just one win in their last four matches and key players unavailable due to suspensions and injuries.
Arsenal is unbeaten in nine matches, with strong form and high confidence, making a 2-2 draw a likely outcome to advance.

Expired

Declan Rice scored twice in Arsenal's 3-0 win over Real Madrid in London (Getty)

Real Madrid vs Arsenal Tips

Arsenal look very likely to progress after a 3-0 victory at home in the first leg. The Gunners have not tasted defeat since February, so they should be able to keep this close enough.

Real Madrid vs Arsenal Tips
Head to Head
Real Madrid Form
Arsenal Form
Predicted Lineups

Real Madrid have won 1 of their last 4 matches.
Real Madrid have seen BTTS in their last 10 home matches (Champions League).
Real Madrid have seen over 3.5 goals in 5 of their last 6 home matches (Champions League).
Arsenal are undefeated in their last 9 matches.
Arsenal have seen BTTS in 3 of their last 4 matches (Champions League).

Head to Head

Arsenal may not have the best record against Madrid but they did win 3-0 at home last week.

Real Madrid Form

Real Madrid have hit a rough patch of form, starting with a 4-4 draw against Real Sociedad in the Copa del Rey. They came back on three occasions, the result seeing them through to the final where they will meet Barcelona.

Los Blancos suffered an unfortunate 2-1 loss against Valencia in their return to La Liga. Vinícius Júnior failed to convert an early penalty and equalised shortly after the break, ultimately unable to take advantage of 3.36-1.09 expected goals, conceding four minutes into added time.

Carlo Ancelotti’s side saw their Champions League ambitions take a big blow against Arsenal in the quarter-final first leg last week. They lost 3-0 in London, falling away in the final 45 minutes after going into half-time goalless.

Real Madrid secured a narrow 1-0 victory at Deportivo Alavés on Sunday, Eduardo Camavinga netting the decisive goal before Kylian Mbappé was shown a straight red card in the 38th minute. Alavés went down to ten men in the 70th minute, Real holding on to remain four points behind La Liga leaders Barcelona.

Arsenal Form

Arsenal are unbeaten in nine matches, thrashing PSV 9-1 on aggregate in the Champions League round of 16. The North London outfit recently recorded home wins over Chelsea and Fulham in the Premier League.

The Gunners earned a third straight draw on the road after a 1-1 stalemate at Everton. Declan Rice scored two direct free-kicks in a commanding 3-0 victory over Real Madrid in the Champions League quarter-final first leg at the Emirates Stadium.

Mikel Merino added the third goal, the triumph putting Arsenal on the cusp of their first semi-final appearance in the competition since 2009.

Mikel Arteta made five changes in the EPL on Saturday, his side held to a 1-1 draw against Brentford. Thomas Partey finished off a swift counter-attack on the hour mark, the Bees equalising in the 73rd minute which leaves the Gunners 10 points behind league leaders Liverpool.

Predicted Lineups

Real Madrid (4-2-3-1): Thibaut Courtois; Federico Valverde, Antonio Rüdiger, Nacho Fernández, Fran García; Aurélien Tchouaméni, Dani Ceballos; Rodrygo, Jude Bellingham, Vinícius Júnior; Kylian Mbappé.

Defenders Dani Carvajal and Éder Militão are sidelined with knee injuries and left-back Ferland Mendy is doubtful due to a muscle issue. Goalkeeper Andriy Lunin is a doubt with a calf problem.

Midfielder Eduardo Camavinga is suspended following a late red card in the first leg.

Arsenal (4-3-3): David Raya; Jurriën Timber, William Saliba, Jakub Kiwior, Myles Lewis-Skelly; Martin Odegaard, Thomas Partey, Declan Rice; Bukayo Saka, Mikel Merino, Gabriel Martinelli.

Defence is depleted with Gabriel Magalhães out with a hamstring injury, Riccardo Calafiori and Takehiro Tomiyasu missing with knee injuries.

Forwards Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz are unavailable, defender Ben White and midfielder Jorginho both doubtful.

Verdict

Real Madrid v Arsenal

Arsenal haven’t lost in nine games including a 3-0 victory against Real Madrid in London. They are set to suffer for long spells in Spain, but I think the English club can earn a 2-2 draw to go through.

Draw

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2-2 Draw

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