Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina Predictions - Sabalenka can win at Australian Open

John Eastwood

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Last updated: 28 Jan 2026

John Eastwood 28 Jan 2026

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Sabalenka on a perfect 10-match win streak, strong hard-court Slam record.
Svitolina achieves her first Australian Open semifinal, defeating Coco Gauff.
Despite form, Sabalenka's hard-court success may give her the edge.

Expired

Aryna Sabalenka reacts to defeating Iva Jovic in the quarter-final in Melbourne (credit: Getty)

Both players arrive in great form, but Sabalenka’s proven dominance at hard court Slams gives her the edge here. It would not be a surprise if this stretches to three sets.

Aryna Sabalenka is on a six-match winning streak in hard-court Slam semifinals.
She has won 12 straight Grand Slam matches.
Elina Svitolina is 0–3 in Slam semifinals.
She has won three of her last four Slam matches vs top-5 players.

HTH - Aryna Sabalenka leads 5-1

Year	Event	Surface	Round	Winner	Score
2025	Madrid WTA	Clay	SF	Aryna Sabalenka	6-3, 7-5
2024	Cincinnati WTA	Hard	R16	Aryna Sabalenka	7-5, 6-2
2024	Rome WTA	Clay	R16	Aryna Sabalenka	4-6, 6-1, 7-6(7)
2023	French Open	Clay	QF	Aryna Sabalenka	6-4, 6-4
2020	Strasbourg	Clay	SF	Elina Svitolina	6-2, 4-6, 6-4
2018	Wuhan	Hard	2R	Aryna Sabalenka	6-4, 2-6, 6-1

Sabalenka Eyes Another Final

Aryna Sabalenka reached her fourth straight Australian Open semifinal after beating 18-year-old Iva Jovic, 6-3, 6-0, in 90 minutes, ending the teenager’s dream run with a composed display.

Sabalenka has now extended her perfect start to the season to 10 wins without dropping a set. Apart from a brief scare against Anastasia Potapova earlier in the tournament, she has barely been tested.

This latest win further underlines the case we laid out in our Australian Open women’s tournament preview, where Sabalenka was tipped as the outright favourite for the title. The world number one continues to justify that billing with her control, consistency, and physical dominance through the draw.

With this run, Sabalenka became only the third top seed in the last decade to reach the Australian Open semifinals without losing a set, after Serena Williams (2016) and Ash Barty (2022).

She enjoyed a similar dominant path in Melbourne last year but fell short in the final, losing a three-set battle to Madison Keys, denying her a third consecutive Australian Open title.

Sabalenka now owns a 7–6 record in Grand Slam semifinals and is on a six-match winning streak at this stage on hard courts. With form and confidence firmly on her side, she looks primed for another title push.

Category	Details
Nationality	Belarus
Age	27 (5 May 1998)
Plays	Right-handed
World Ranking	1
Career High	1 (11 September 2023)
Elo Ranking	1 (Rating: 2222)
Tour level titles	22

Svitolina Silences Doubts

Elina Svitolina produced a stunning performance to defeat world No. 3 Coco Gauff 6-1, 6-2 and book her place in the Australian Open semifinals. It was her most dominant win of the tournament, giving the American no time to settle.

The Ukrainian controlled the match from start to finish and wrapped it up quickly with relentless pressure. This marks Svitolina’s first-ever Australian Open semifinal after three previous quarterfinal exits.

Like her opponent, Svitolina has not dropped a set throughout the tournament and now carries a 10-match winning streak. Her confidence has clearly carried over from recent weeks.

Notably, this is the first time she has defeated back-to-back top-10 players since the 2019 WTA Finals. It underlines just how sharp her level has been in Melbourne.

However, she enters the semifinal with a 0–3 record at this stage in Grand Slams, having lost all previous semifinal appearances in straight sets.

Category	Details
Nationality	Ukraine
Age	31 (12 September 1994)
Plays	Right-handed
World Ranking	12
Career High	3 (11 September 2017)
Elo Ranking	10 (Rating: 1994)
Tour level titles	19

Verdict

Aryna Sabalenka v Elina Svitolina

Form and confidence are high on both sides, which should make this a demanding test. Still, Aryna Sabalenka’s proven dominance at hard-court majors tips the balance in her favor, even if it takes three sets to settle.

Sabalenka 2-1

Correct Score

@3.70 - 3 Units

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