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Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina Preview - Rybakina backed to overpower Pegula at Aus Open

John Eastwood

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Last updated: 28 Jan 2026

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John Eastwood 28 Jan 2026

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Elena Rybakina favored due to better recent performance against top players.
Jessica Pegula has struggled in semifinals, converting one of her last five.
Expect a competitive match, possibly extending over 21.5 total games.

Expired

Elena Rybakina plays a forehand in the Women's Singles Quarter Finals match against Iga Swiatek in Melbourne (credit: Getty)

Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina Predictions

Form is strong on both sides coming into this match, but Elena Rybakina has delivered better results against top tier opponents lately. That recent edge puts her slightly ahead of Jessica Pegula, even if this one looks set to go the distance.

Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina Predictions
Head to Head
Jessica Pegula Form
Elena Rybakina Form
Elena Rybakina Form

Jessica Pegula has lost four of her last five semifinals and is 1–1 in Slam semis.
She is 7–7 vs top-10 players since the start of 2025.
Elena Rybakina is 2–1 in Grand Slam semifinals.
She has won 12 of her last 13 matches against American players.

Head to Head

These two have met six times with each winning on three occasions. Rynakina has won the last two encounters, both on hard courts in 2025.

Jessica Pegula Form

Jessica Pegula reached her first Australian Open semifinal after back-to-back straight-set wins over defending champion Madison Keys and compatriot Amanda Anisimova.

The 6-2, 7-6 victory over Anisimova finally ended her quarterfinal curse in Melbourne, where she had fallen at that stage three straight times from 2021 to 2023.

Like the other semifinalists, Pegula has not dropped a set in this campaign. Aside from the tight second set against Anisimova, her path through the draw has been largely comfortable.

This run marks her sixth consecutive tour-level semifinal, stretching back to the US Open. However, she has converted only one of the previous five into a final—Wuhan—highlighting a recent struggle at this stage.

Pegula has played two Grand Slam semifinals before, both at the US Open. She beat Karolina Muchova in 2024 but fell to Aryna Sabalenka in the 2025 semifinal.

Elena Rybakina Form

Elena Rybakina continued her dominant surge by eliminating world No. 2 Iga Swiatek in straight sets, 7-5, 6-1. She struck 11 aces and won 79% of her first-serve points in a commanding display.

The victory extended Rybakina’s winning streak against top-10 opponents to eight matches.

The Kazakh endured a difficult spell in early 2025 while defending heavy 2024 points, briefly slipping outside the top 10 as results dried up.

Her revival began during the North American swing, where consistency returned and confidence followed, culminating in a WTA Finals title late in the season.

Rybakina now heads into the Grand Slam semifinal with a 2–1 career record at this stage, having last fallen in a major semifinal at Wimbledon 2024 against Barbora Krejcikova.

Elena Rybakina Form

Elena Rybakina continued her dominant surge by eliminating world No. 2 Iga Swiatek in straight sets, 7-5, 6-1. She struck 11 aces and won 79% of her first-serve points in a commanding display.

The victory extended Rybakina’s winning streak against top-10 opponents to eight matches.

The Kazakh endured a difficult spell in early 2025 while defending heavy 2024 points, briefly slipping outside the top 10 as results dried up.

Her revival began during the North American swing, where consistency returned and confidence followed, culminating in a WTA Finals title late in the season.

Rybakina now heads into the Grand Slam semifinal with a 2–1 career record at this stage, having last fallen in a major semifinal at Wimbledon 2024 against Barbora Krejcikova.

Verdict

Jessica Pegula v Elena Rybakina

This matchup looks finely balanced given the form on both sides. However, Rybakina’s stronger record against top players in recent months gives her the edge, while the competitiveness of the matchup points toward a match that could easily go the distance.

Elena Rybakina

Match Winner

@1.49 - 3 Units

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Rybakina 2-1

Correct Score

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Over 21.5

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