2024 Durban July Predictions - 12/1 selection worth Flagging up

We normally wait until after the public workouts to publish my Durban July tips. However, we've decided to have an early bet on a runner that could shorten up in price before the main event. 

The Durban July may be a Group One race, but it's also a handicap. Siding with lightly-raced sorts is a tactic that often proves profitable in handicaps and the runner I'm most keen to back in this year's Durban July is unexposed three-year-old FLAG MAN (12/1).

Gareth van Zyl and the ownership team moved to purchase this gelding from Garth Puller following an impressive maiden victory on his third career start in November. Flag Man made the perfect start to life with van Zyl by winning a handicap and went into the Daily News 2000 on the back of an easy stakes success here at Greyville.

Despite his relative inexperience, money arrived for Flag Man on the day of the Daily News 2000. Serino Moodley's mount was keen early on as he sat behind the pace and got caught on his heels as odds-on favourite Green With Envy mounted his challenge from the rear.

Green With Envy opened up a narrow lead turning for home, but Flag Man remained on his tail. As the leader carried both horses towards the inside rail, Moodley's mount rallied gamely and it was only a well-timed bob of the head from Green With Envy that saw the 4/6 favourite claim victory.

Flag Man's breeding makes for interesting reading. His sire, Flying The Flag is a full sibling to multiple Group One winners Magical and Rhododendron. Flying The Flag himself was a Group Three winner for Aidan O'Brien, before ending his career with Mike De Kock and becoming a sire in South Africa.

Green With Envy was only a short-head better than Flag Man off-level weights in the Daily News 2000 and Serino Moodley's mount will be getting 2.5kgs from the joint-favourite on Saturday. Being drawn out in stall 17 might not be ideal, but we've seen plenty of horses win and challenge from wide draws in recent years and Flag Man has the ideal profile for a race like the Durban July.