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South Africa vs Italy Rugby World Cup Tips

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 03 Oct 2019

Ralph Staniforth 03 Oct 2019

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Mbonambi tipped to continue try scoring form

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Italy have covered the +27 handicap in two of their last three matches against South Africa (Getty Images)

South Africa vs Italy Betting Tips, Free Bets & Betting Sites

South Africa meet Italy in a crunch Pool B fixture at the Shizuoka Stadium in the 2019 Rugby World Cup. The Springboks are huge favourites but the value lies with Italy in the handicap market. Bongi Mbonambi scored twice against Namibia and will be a key weapon.

South Africa Form & Team News

South Africa expectedly cruised past Namibia 57-3 in the Toyota Stadium in their last match. It was a team with 12 changes from the one that faced the All Blacks in the opener.

This week the Springboks revert back to their strongest line-up with no injury concerns among the first-choice players. Jesse Kriel has been sent home but was playing second fiddle to Lukhanyo Am.

The Springboks should comfortably see off Italy and it shows with them being favourite at 1.01. This is however a crunch game in a World Cup with rain around, so I don’t expect the Springboks to run away with it.

South African hooker Bongi Mbonambi scored two tries against Nambia from the back of a driving maul. Against Italy we can expect a lot more driving mauls so I’m backing him in the try-scoring market.

Rassie Erasmus will want a clinical performance from his charges which I think they will get. But I don’t see them covering the -27 handicap at 1.90 with so much on the line for both sides.

Italy Form & Team News

Italy come into this match with some confidence after winning their opening two games, albeit against exceptionally weak opposition. Their last match was a 48-7 victory over Canada at the Fukuoka Hakatanomori Stadium.

There has been a dip in Italian rugby over the last few years and a win over the Springboks is very unlikely. The bookmakers agree with odds of 17.00 to claim an outright win.

Italy vs canada rugby world cup — Italy have won their opening two Rugby World Cup games against Namibia and Canada (Getty Images)

Italy have no major injury concerns and will rely heavily on talisman loose-forward Sergio Parisse to cause the Springboks problems. The Italians do have one thing in their favour – the weather. They are accustomed to wet weather and that is the forecast for Friday.

Italy will want this match to be a battle between the forwards with that being their best chance of causing an upset. In the end of the Springboks should be comfortably too good but the +27 handicap is generous from the bookmakers.

At 1.90 to cover the +27 handicap I feel Italy are great value. It shouldn’t be a high scoring game in the wet and it will be a tactical battle for the most part.

South Africa vs Italy Head to Head

South Africa dominates the head to head battle having won 13 of the 14 encounters. Their last encounter ended 35-6 to South Africa at the Stadio Euganeo in 2017.

South Africa vs Italy Betting Odds

South Africa are heavily favoured by the bookmakers at 1.01. Italy are underdogs at 17.00 but can be backed at 1.90 to cover the +27 handicap while the Springboks carry the same odds to cover the -27 handicap.

In the try-scoring market Springbok winger Makazole Mapimpi and hooker Bongi Mbonambi are both valued at 9.50 to be the Springboks first try-scorer, while Mbonambi can be backed at 6.50 to score two or more tries.

South Africa vs Italy Match Up

This will be a battle of attrition with the forwards dominating in what is supposed to be wet weather. The big battle will be between the half back parings of Faf de Klerk and Handre Pollard for South Africa and Italian duo Tito Tebaldi and Tommaso Allan. Whoever wins this tactical battle will in all likelihood win the match.

Bongi Mbonambi vs Namibia — Bongi Mbonambi scored two tries against Namibia and is tipped to continue his form (Getty Images)

South Africa vs Italy Key Statistics

South Africa’s Bongi Mbonambi scored 2 tries in his last match.
Italy have won their 2 games at the 2019 Rugby World Cup.
Italy have covered the +27 handicap in 2 of their last 3 matches against South Africa.
Italy have covered the +27 handicap in 6 of their last 7 matches.

Where will South Africa vs Italy be played?

South Africa will play Italy at the Shizuoka Stadium in Shizuoka City, Japan.

When will South Africa vs Italy be played?

South Africa will play Italy on Friday 6 October 2019 at 10:45 CET.

Have Italy beaten South Africa before?

Italy have beaten South Africa once in 14 matches. That victory came in 2016 and finished 20-18.

Verdict

South Africa v Italy

With wet weather around and a competitive forward pack Italy can come the +27 handicap at 1.90. I am backing Bongi Mbonambi to score two or more tries at 6.50 with value on him being the Springboks first try-scorer at 9.50.

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