New Zealand vs Italy Predictions - Italy to challenge All Blacks in Nations Championship

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 2 hours ago

Ralph Staniforth 2 hours ago

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All Blacks have won all 17 games vs Italy; dominant historical record.
Recent form: NZ narrowly beat France, Italy lost to Wales and Japan.
Prediction: Italy likely to cover 32.5-point handicap despite All Blacks' favoritism.

New Zealand have never lost to Italy (Getty Images)

New Zealand vs Italy Predictions

Italy come into town with decent pedigree having achieved some good wins over the last six months, however, they have been relatively average recently. Still, they are a competitive side, so while I believe the All Blacks will get a comfortable win, I feel that the 32.5 handicap is too steep.

New Zealand vs Italy Predictions
Head to Head
New Zealand Form
Italy Form
New Zealand vs Italy Sarting Lineups, Injuries & Team News

New Zealand have won their last 17 matches against Italy.
New Zealand have won 6 of their last 7 matches.
Italy have lost their last 2 matches.

Head to Head

These two nations have met 17 times with New Zealand winning all of them. They have only played in New Zealand three times with the points difference across those games being 139 in favour of the All Blacks.

New Zealand Form

New Zealand were fortunate last weekend in their opening Nations Championship fixture, beating France 34-32 at home. Regardless, it was an important win to get the tournament underway.

While the new coaching staff settle in at the All Blacks, things may take some time to come right. Consistency may elude them for their first few games, but this fixture against Italy, a team they have never lost to, should offer another opportunity to build on their plan.

Despite not having the best 2025, New Zealand have still won six of their last seven matches, including their first 2026 win last weekend.

Italy Form

Italy are a vastly improved side over the last two years and have become a team that can beat most teams on their day. They proved that during the Six Nations earlier this year, finishing fourth and beating England.

Italy also beat Australia at the end of 2025, so they should be confident, however, their most recent form has not been convincing. After beating England in Rome, the Italians lost 31-17 in Wales before going down 27-10 to Japan last weekend.

They will make changes to their side, but the Italians will have to be far better than they were last weekend if they wish to compete with the All Blacks.

New Zealand vs Italy Sarting Lineups, Injuries & Team News

New Zealand: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Billy Proctor, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Leroy Carter, 10 Ruben Love, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Ardie Savea (captain), 7 Luke Jacobson, 6 Wallace Sititi, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Sam Darry, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot.

Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 George Bower, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Anton Segner, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Josh Moorby.

Italy: 15 Tommaso Allan, 14 Malik Faissal, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Louis Lynagh, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Stephen Varney, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Michele Lamaro (captain), 6 Ross Vintcent, 5 Andrea Zambonin, 4 Niccolo Cannone, 3 Marco Riccioni, 2 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 1 Danilo Fischetti.

Replacements: 16 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Muhamed Hasa, 19 Giulio Marini, 20 Federico Ruzza, 21 Riccardo Favretto, 22 Alessandro Garbisi, 23 Leonardo Marin.