Australia vs Japan Predictions - Japan to run Australia close

Ralph Staniforth

Editor

Last updated: 14 Aug 2026

Ralph Staniforth 14 Aug 2026

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Australia has won all 8 meetings, but last two by just 4 & 3 points.
Japan is quickly improving and nearly beat Australia last week.
Prediction: Japan to cover the +18.5 handicap in a close game.

Expired

Japan to once again take Australia close (Getty Images)

Australia vs Japan Predictions

This should be another great contest after Japan ran the Wallabies close last weekend. It is another chance for Eddie Jones' Brave Blossoms to create history. We are once again backing the Japanese to get within the +18.5 handicap, a very generous offering after last week's match.

Australia vs Japan Predictions
Head to Head
Australia Form
Japan Form

Australia have won their last 8 matches against Japan.
Japan have lost their last 2 matches against Australia by 4 & 3 points.

Head to Head

Australia lead 8-0 in their eight matches against Japan, however, the last two games have been decided by four and three points. Last week, Japan lost 35-32 in a match they will feel they should have won.

Australia Form

Australia have been a bit up-and-down in 2026 thus far but there have been signs of improvement. However, the Nations Championship fixtures were played under Joe Schmidt, and now with new coaches on board, it will be interesting to see where the Wallabies go.

Last weekend was their first game since Schmidt left, and it was a struggle. Japan just never went away, dominated large parts of the game and held their own at set piece.

The Wallabies will need to find a way to slow down the ball, disrupt the set piece and the tight-five will have to ensure some level of dominance for Australia.

Japan Form

Japan are improving with each game and are a team to be reckoned with, particularly for Australia who have not been in good form.

Last week will still hurt the Brave Blossoms as they had a real opportunity to get their first-ever win over Australia. However, this weekend provides another opportunity, and they have been close in their last two games.

The handicap of 18.5 in favour of the hosts is way too big in my opinion, and if the fast-paced Japan get going again in Townsville, we could see another tight contest.

Verdict

Australia v Japan

I am backing Japan to get within the +18.5 handicap.

Japan +18.5

Handicap

@1,91 - 5 Units

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Ralph is from South Africa and studied Sports Science post school at ETA (Education Teachers Academy) in Cape Town.

He has always had a great passion for sport and this led him into the world of sports journalism, while coaching on the side. Since 2012 Ralph has worked as a journalist and covered many topics from business to sport.

Over the last seven years he has interviewed numerous top rugby and cricket players and coaches in South Africa.

Ralph has been betting on sports for the last ten years. He’s knowledgeable on numerous topics including football, rugby, cricket, tennis and golf.

He supports Manchester United (football), Cheetahs (rugby), Knights (cricket) and has a newly found appreciation for Dominic Thiem on the tennis courts.