Tasman Mako vs Southland Stags Predictions - Tasman Mako tipped to continue their dominance against Southland Stags in NPC clash
Tasman Mako face Southland Stags in the National Provincial Championship, having won their past five meetings. Tasman are predicted to dominate, particularly after a 50-35 win over Counties Manukau, while Southland have been inconsistent despite a narrow victory over Waikato. With the Mako demonstrating attacking strength and holding a superior head-to-head record, the key recommendation is for Tasman Mako to cover the -16.5 point handicap.
- Tasman Mako have won their last five matches vs Southland Stags.
- Tasman are backed to cover a -16.5 point handicap.
- Southland Stags have lost 4 of their last 5 despite a recent win.
Tasman Mako tipped to continue their dominance against Southland Stags in NPC clash (Getty Images)
Tasman Mako vs Southland Stags Predictions
Tasman Mako are strong favourites given their dominant head-to-head record. My best bet is Tasman Mako to cover the -16.5 handicap.
- Tasman Mako vs Southland Stags Predictions
- Head-to-Head
- Tasman Mako Form
- Tasman Mako Injuries & Team News
- Southland Stags Form
- Southland Stags Injuries & Team News
- Tasman Mako have won the last 5 matches against Southland Stags.
- Tasman Mako have won 2 of their last 5 matches.
- Tasman Mako beat Counties Manukau 50-35 in their previous match.
- Southland Stags have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Southland Stags beat Waikato 32-31 in their previous match.
Head-to-Head
Tasman Mako have won the last five meetings against Southland Stags.
Tasman Mako Form
Tasman Mako come into this match on the back of a 50-35 victory over Counties Manukau in Round 3 of the National Provincial Championship at Navigation Homes Stadium in Pukekohe, after leading 19-14 at the break.
Tasman's Kyren Taumoefolau (winger) stood out by scoring a brilliant individual first-half hat-trick of tries, helping Tasman maintain their five-point lead at the break.
Tasman capitalized on pace and space in the second half to pull away for the 15-point victory.
Tasman have had an inconsistent run of form, winning two of their last five matches. They lost to Counties Manukau (49-41), Bay of Plenty (27-7), beat North Harbour (31-29), before losing to Hawke's Bay (50-19) and defeating Counties Manukau (50-35).
Tasman Mako are seventh in the NPC table with 10 points after three matches of the 2026 campaign.
Tasman Mako Injuries & Team News
Starting XV: 1 Tom Heywood, 2 Richie Asiata, 3 Kershawl Sykes-Martin, 4 Hunter Leppien, 5 Antonio Shalfoon, 6 Lopeti Faifua, 7 Rory Scott, 8 Johnny Lee, 9 Mason Lund, 10 William Havili, 11 Timoci Sauira, 12 David Havili, 13 Cooper Roberts, 14 Kyren Taumoefolau, 15 Maloni Kunawave.
Replacements: 16 Eli Oudenryn, 17 Isaiah Malaulau, 18 Sione Mafi, 19 Jake Frost, 20 Tayne Hemopo, 21 Wil Thornalley, 22 Taine Robinson, 23 Nic Sauira.
Southland Stags Form
The Stags defeated a previously unbeaten Waikato side 32-31 in a thrilling NPC match at Rugby Park Stadium in Invercargill, leading 8-5 at halftime. Fly-half Jimmy Taylor kicked a clutch sideline conversion after the final whistle to snatch the one-point victory.
Forward standout players included tight-head prop Paula Latu who scored two tries, while hooker Jayden Henderson and lock Mitch Dunshea also delivered strong performances.
The win marked a major bounce-back for the Stags at Invercargill Rugby Park following a narrow loss the previous week.
Southland Stags have struggled for form, losing four of their last five matches. They lost to Tasman Mako (55-38), North Harbour (15-14), Otago (41-14), and Manawatu (36-35), before beating Waikato (32-31).
The Stags are 10th in the NPC table with seven points after three matches of the 2026 campaign.
Southland Stags Injuries & Team News
Starting XV: 1 Jack Barrett, 2 Jayden Henderson, 3 Paula Latu, 4 Mitch Dunshea, 5 Ale Aho, 6 Sam Fischli, 7 Sean Withy, 8 Konrad Toleafoa, 9 Nic Shearer, 10 Mika Muliaina, 11 Glen Vaihu, 12 Scott Gregory, 13 Willi Gualter, 14 Jay Reihana, 15 Jimmy Taylor.
Replacements: 16 Shaun Kempton, 17 Jack Sexton, 18 Sef Fa'agase, 19 Kasaloma Ahokovi, 20 Clem Halaholo, 21 Jackson Hughan, 22 Fletcher Morgan, 23 Josh Augustine.
Verdict
Tasman Mako are strong favourites given their dominant head-to-head record. My best bet is Tasman Mako to cover the -16.5 handicap.
Tasman Mako -16.5
Handicap
@1,91 - 1 Unit
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