Wales vs New Zealand Predictions - New Zealand to canter to victory over Wales in Nations Championship

Ralph Staniforth

Editor

Last updated: 2 hours ago

Ralph Staniforth 2 hours ago

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New Zealand are tipped to cover the -31.5 handicap against Wales.
The All Blacks have scored at least 40 points in their last three Tests.
Recent meetings have produced 70 or more total points.

All Blacks far too strong for Wales (Getty Images)

Wales vs New Zealand Predictions

he All Blacks have dominated this fixture for decades and arrive unbeaten in the competition. New Zealand are backed to cover the -31.5 handicap, while over 69.5 Points is another attractive selection given the high-scoring nature of recent meetings.

Wales vs New Zealand Predictions
Head-to-Head
Wales Form
New Zealand Form
Team News

Wales have lost their last 34 Tests against New Zealand.
Wales have conceded 35 or more points in 3 of their 4 Nations Championship matches.
Wales lost 43-0 to South Africa in their most recent match against a top-ranked southern hemisphere opponent.
New Zealand have won all 4 Nations Championship matches, scoring 164 points.
New Zealand have scored at least 40 points in their last 3 Tests.
New Zealand have scored 50 or more points in their last 3 visits to Cardiff.
The last 3 meetings have produced 78, 78 and 70 total points.

Head-to-Head

New Zealand have dominated this fixture, winning the last 34 meetings since Wales' most recent victory in 1953.

The All Blacks won 52-26 in Cardiff in November 2025, following victories of 55-23 in 2022 and 54-16 in 2021.

Those three encounters produced at least 70 points, with New Zealand scoring 161 points across the matches.

However, the All Blacks covered the current -31.5 handicap in only two of those three victories.

Wales Form

Wales secured a much-needed 28-21 victory over Japan last weekend, but their performance raised further questions about their ability to compete against the world's leading teams.

Josh Adams scored twice, while Louis Rees-Zammit was another influential performer as Wales claimed a bonus-point victory.

However, Wales struggled at the set-piece, losing six lineouts on their own throw, and were unable to establish control against opponents they were expected to beat.

Their performances against stronger opposition have been considerably less encouraging.

Wales suffered a 43-0 defeat against South Africa in July, having previously lost 35-21 to Argentina. They have conceded at least 35 points in three of their four Nations Championship matches.

Although Wales have shown attacking improvement, their defensive record suggests they could struggle to contain New Zealand's powerful backline.

New Zealand Form

New Zealand have won all four Nations Championship matches, defeating France, Italy, Ireland and Scotland.

They continued their unbeaten campaign with a 43-21 victory over Scotland at Murrayfield last weekend, scoring 43 points for the third consecutive Test.

The All Blacks have scored 164 points in the competition, averaging 41 per match, and have demonstrated their ability to punish defensive mistakes.

Their recent attacking performances include a 47-17 victory over Italy and a 40-21 win against Ireland.

New Zealand have also won their last three Tests following their series defeat against South Africa in September.

Although the All Blacks have conceded 91 points in four Nations Championship matches, their attacking strength makes another high-scoring encounter likely.

Dave Rennie has made eight changes to the starting XV, with Richie Mo'unga returning at flyhalf and Beauden Barrett captaining the side from fullback.

The changes introduce some uncertainty, but New Zealand retain considerable experience and attacking quality.

Team News

Wales have made four changes to the starting side. Taine Basham replaces the injured Aaron Wainwright, while James Botham and Adam Beard return to the starting pack. Gabriel Hamer-Webb replaces the rested Josh Adams on the wing.

New Zealand have made eight starting changes, with Richie Mo'unga returning at flyhalf and Beauden Barrett starting at fullback. Anton Segner and Fehi Fineanganofo make their first Test starts, while Will Jordan is unavailable through injury.

Verdict

Wales v New Zealand

New Zealand should win this game with ease. The -31.5 handicap has value.

New Zealand -31.5

Handicap

@1,91 - 3 Units

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Ralph Staniforth is a South African sports journalist, editor and betting writer who has worked in sports media since 2012.

With a background in Sports Science, he has covered a wide range of sports and interviewed leading players and coaches across South African rugby, cricket and football.

His sports betting work covers both South African and international markets, combining his knowledge of sport with extensive experience analysing fixtures, teams, form and betting markets.

Ralph specialises in football and rugby, while also covering cricket, tennis and golf. His work includes match previews, betting tips, betting guides and broader analysis of the sports betting industry.

You can find more from Ralph at Muckrack and LinkedIn.