2025 Quilter Nations Series Predictions & Tips (1 November)

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South Africa vs Japan Predictions - Springboks backed to cover against Japan

Ralph Staniforth

Editor

Last updated: 30 Oct 2025

Ralph Staniforth 30 Oct 2025

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South Africa expected to cover the -37.5 handicap against Japan.
Japan struggled in recent matches and face injury challenges.
Springboks enter with strong form, having won the Rugby Championship.

Expired

South Africa face Japan at Wembley on Saturday (Getty Images)

South Africa vs Japan Predictions

South Africa are huge favourites and have selected a very strong side. While Japan will show a lot of fight, I just don’t see them matching the Springboks at scrum or lineout time – this will create a very long afternoon for the Brave Blossoms.

South Africa vs Japan Predictions
Head to Head
South Africa Form
South Africa Injuries & Team News
Japan Form
Japan Injuries & Team News

I am backing South Africa to cover the -37.5 handicap.

South Africa have won their last 3 matches.
South Africa have scored 67 & 43 points in 2 of their last 3 matches.
South Africa have won their last 2 matches against Japan.
Japan have lost their last 2 matches.

Head to Head

South Africa have beaten Japan in their last two outings, both in 2019. Ahead of the 2019 World Cup, the Springboks beat Japan in a warm-up game and then defeated the hosts in the quarterfinal 26-3.

However, one of the most famous rugby results came when these two met in Brighton in 2015 during the group stage of the 2015 World Cup. Japan beat the Springboks in what is arguably the biggest upset ever in the sport and perhaps across any sport.

South Africa Form

South Africa come into this opening November international month off the back of a Rugby Championship victory, a title they defended after winning it in 2024 as well. Their form has been good of late despite a patchy start to the tournament.

Far bigger clashes await the defending world champions this November, most notably France next weekend. However, this fixture against Japan at Wembley offers Rassie Erasmus and his squad an opportunity to ease into the grueling tour.

The Springboks won their last three Rugby Championship matches after losing two of their opening three games. They lost at home to Australia before defeating the Wallabies at home the following week. That was followed by a 24-17 loss at Eden Park to the All Blacks.

However, a week later, the Springboks thrashed New Zealand 43-10 in Wellington and followed it up with a 67-30 home win over Argentina. Their final game saw them beat Argentina at Twickenham 29-27 to claim the title.

The handicap for this encounter against the Brave Blossoms is set at 37.5 but given the strength of the side South Africa have announced, you have to fancy the world champs to cover that.

South Africa Injuries & Team News

Rassie Erasmus has surprised many with his selection. It is perhaps not a full-strength side but it is a side full of World Cup winners and plenty of experience.

Japan Form

Japan are a vastly improved rugby nation but they have stagnated in recent years. The return of Eddie Jones as coach, however, promises further improvement.

Earlier this year, Japan did well at in the Pacific Nations Cup, ending as runners-up after losing to Fiji in a classic final. Last week, on home soil, Japan took Australia to the brink, losing 19-15.

Australia dominated the game in terms of possession and territory in terrible weather. Japan struggled to get their fast-flowing game going, mostly due to the weather.

However, the positive is that they hung in there for 80 minutes, made plenty of tackles in the 80 minutes, but that could ultimately cost them this week as tired bodies start piling up.

Japan Injuries & Team News

Japan will make changes to the side from last week to keep things fresh. Eddie Jones already has a few injury concerns to deal with as well, which could result in a weakened team taking the field.

Verdict

South Africa v Japan

South Africa are backed to cover the 37.5 handicap as my best bet. There is also value in Kurt-Lee Arendse and Malcolm Marx scoring 2+ tries each.

South Africa -37.5

Handicap

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Kurt-Lee Arendse

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Malcolm Marx

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