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Wales vs New Zealand Predictions - All Blacks to run Wales ragged in Cardiff

Ralph Staniforth

Editor

Last updated: 20 Nov 2025

Ralph Staniforth 20 Nov 2025

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New Zealand has won the last 31 games against Wales.
New Zealand is expected to cover a 27.5-point handicap.
Will Jordan is likely to score multiple tries.

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All Blacks to thrash Wales (Getty Images)

Wales vs New Zealand Predictions

Despite New Zealand making nine changes to their starting lineup, they are still massive favourites to win. The handicap is set at 27.5, a difference I think New Zealand will cover comfortably. It may also be worth looking at the match seeing over 59.5 points and Will Jordan to continue his try scoring feats.

Wales vs New Zealand Predictions
Head to Head
Wales Form
Wales Injuries & Team News
New Zealand Form
New Zealand Injuries & Team News

Wales have lost 18 of their last 20 matches.
New Zealand have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
New Zealand have won their last 31 matches against Wales.
New Zealand have scored 50+ points in their last 2 matches against Wales.

Head to Head

Wales and New Zealand have met on 35 occasions since 1905 with New Zealand leading 32-3. However, Wales last win over the All Blacks came in 1953 – they won three of the first four meetings against New Zealand.

The All Blacks have own the last 31 games between the two sides. They last met in 2022, a match the All Blacks won 55-23 at the Principality Stadium. The last two games between the sides – 2021 & 2022 – has seen New Zealand score 50+ points.

Wales Form

Wales rugby was won the dominant Northen Hemisphere forces just a few years ago. They reached the semi-final of the 2019 World Cup and won the Six Nations in 2021. Their fall from grace since then has been something to behold.

Since losing the 2023 Rugby World Cup quarter-final against Argentina, Wales have lost 18 of their 20 matches with both victories in that period coming in 2025 against Japan.

Last week, Wales were very fortunate to come away with a 24-23 home win against Japan, requiring a score after the clock had gone red to get over the line. While Japan are a much-improved side, they are hardly the quality of what New Zealand will bring on Saturday.

Wales Injuries & Team News

Steve Tandy has made several changes to his side to face the All Blacks on Saturday. Tom Rogers comes in for the suspended Josh Adams. Harri Deaves makes his debut on the side of the scrum.

New Zealand Form

New Zealand’s turbulent rein under Scott Robertson seems to have no end in sight. They have been inconsistent since the former Crusaders coach took charge after the 2023 Rugby World Cup.

However, what is poor for the All Blacks is still form other nations would be proud of. They lost out on the Rugby Champions on points difference to South Africa, which already shows that they have been far from horrific.

With a Grand Slam available on the end of year tour, New Zealand started well in Chicago, beating Ireland with a superb final 20 minutes. They followed that up with a win over Scotland after almost letting the game slip away in the second half.

Last weekend, unfortunately, the All Blacks came unstuck against an improving and inspired England side. After two early tries, England clawed their way back into the game throughout the first half and then took complete control in the second to win 33-19.

New Zealand Injuries & Team News

Scott Robertson has made 13 changes to his squad for this match. Will Jordan moves to win with Ruben Love starting at 15. Rieko Ioane is back in the 13 jersey with Anton Lienert-Brown in at 12. Damian McKenzie starts at flyhalf. There are numerous other changes, including a new-look bench.

Verdict

Wales v New Zealand

I am backing the All Blacks to cover the -26.5 handicap with Will Jordan to score multiple tries. This match could see over 59.5 points.

New Zealand -26.5

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Ralph Staniforth is a South African sports journalist, editor and betting writer who has worked in sports media since 2012.

With a background in Sports Science, he has covered a wide range of sports and interviewed leading players and coaches across South African rugby, cricket and football.

His sports betting work covers both South African and international markets, combining his knowledge of sport with extensive experience analysing fixtures, teams, form and betting markets.

Ralph specialises in football and rugby, while also covering cricket, tennis and golf. His work includes match previews, betting tips, betting guides and broader analysis of the sports betting industry.

You can find more from Ralph at Muckrack and LinkedIn.