UEFA Conference League Predictions, Round 1
Brighton vs Kauno Zalgiris
Brighton arrive in outstanding form with four wins and one draw from their last five matches, scoring 14 goals and conceding only three while keeping three clean sheets. Kauno Zalgiris are hardly struggling themselves, recording four wins and one defeat across their last five and scoring 13 goals, but the jump in standard is enormous.
Brighton have already beaten Arsenal 3-0 and Coventry 5-0 during their current run, while the Lithuanian side recently lifted their domestic cup. The bookmakers regard this as heavily one-sided, with Brighton around 1.02 for the win and Kauno Zalgiris as long as 50.00–65.00! Brighton’s match price therefore offers little attraction.
A more interesting option is Georginio Rutter to score twice at around 3.25, while a Brighton 4-0 correct score has been quoted at approximately 6.00 but considering they beat Arsenal 3-0 and have conceded just one just in four EPL matches it’s something to consider.
FC Copenhagen vs Braga
Copenhagen have produced four wins and one defeat in their last five league matches, although that defeat came most recently with a 2-1 loss away to Midtjylland. Their home form is particularly imposing: Copenhagen have won every home match this season and scored at least twice in each.
Braga’s last five have been less consistent, producing two wins, one draw and two defeats including a 3-1 loss to Sporting Lisbon in their latest outing. Braga do bring an impressive European defensive record, having kept clean sheets throughout their six Conference League qualifying games, so this may be tighter than Copenhagen’s domestic home record suggests.
The market is relatively balanced with Copenhagen around 2.40, Braga 2.85 and the draw close to 3.30 Copenhagen’s home strength makes the hosts interesting at 2.40, but Braga’s European defensive record means this could be a tight bet.
St. Truiden vs Iberia 1999
Recent form creates an intriguing contest as St. Truiden have endured a miserable spell with one win and four defeats in their last five, at the same time conceding 11 goals in the process while being goalless in three of those matches. Iberia 1999 arrive in significantly better shape, winning four of their last five matches, with victories over Meshakhte Tkibuli, Rustavi, Dila Gori and Spaeri. Their only defeat in that sequence was a 2-1 loss to Dinamo Tbilisi.
Despite that form difference the bookmakers strongly favour St. Truiden, pricing the Belgian side around 1.30 with the draw at 5.40 and Iberia as big as 10.00 for the win. That makes this one of the more unpredictable matches on the card.
St. Truiden should possess the greater underlying quality but their four defeats in five make the short home price unappealing to want back. Iberia’s strong recent form at least gives bettors reason to consider alternative handicap or double-chance markets. Regardless of the result this game should be full of goals, so I’m going out on a limb to back four or more in the match.
Hearts vs Nordsjaelland
Hearts come into their European opener in good shape with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five outings. They have scored 12 goals and conceded only four in that spell, keeping two clean sheets and arrive for the clash fresh from hammering St Mirren 5-0 at home.
Nordsjaelland’s form has been more mixed, with two wins, two draws and one defeat ahead of this clash while scoring eight and conceding six goals yet still managing to secure three clean sheets. Despite Hearts’ stronger recent numbers and home advantage Nordsjaelland are market favourites at roughly 2.15 while Hearts sit at 3.10, with the draw on 3.75, so a draw looks a strong option.
Hearts have scored in each of their last five matches while Nordsjaelland have found the net in four of their last five, so a 1-1 correct score paying out at 7.50 is singing to me even though correct scores are always a massive risk. Nordsjaelland striker Alexander Lind is perhaps the safer bet to score at any time in the match as he has three goals in his last six matches.