Wales vs Japan Predictions - Wales to prevail against Japan in Nations Championship clash

Brad Newcomb

Editor

Last updated: 19 minutes ago

Brad Newcomb 19 minutes ago

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Wales are tipped to cover the -15.5 handicap against Japan.
Wales have won 3 of their last 5 matches and 7 of 9 head-to-heads.
Japan have lost their last two meetings with Wales.

Wales have a solid record against Japan (Getty Images)

Wales have been in decent nick and have recorded back-to-back victories against Japan in recent clashes. Japan have also had success recently but historically have struggled against Wales.

Wales have won 3 of their last 5 fixtures.
Wales have won 2 consecutive matches against Japan.
Japan have won 3 of their 5 games.

Head to Head

Wales have the advantage over Japan, with seven victories in nine meetings.

Wales Form

Wales started their Nations Championship campaign on a positive note, defeating Fiji 39-24 before losing 35-21 to Argentina and 43-0 to South Africa.

Wales are fifth in the Northern Hemisphere table with five points from three matches.

Before that, the Welsh side edged the Barbarians at Twickenham, winning 33-31 in a friendly match.

The Red Dragons had limited success during the 2026 Six Nations Championship. They lost 48-7 to England, 54-12 to France, 26-23 to Scotland, and 27-17 to Ireland before beating Italy 31-17 to finish last in the competition.

Wales have historically had the edge over Japan and will use their home ground advantage to come out on top and secure the points on offer.

Japan Form

Japan kicked off their Nations Championship campaign with a solid 27-10 victory over Italy before losing 36-20 to Ireland and 42-15 to France.

Japan are fifth in the Southern Hemisphere standings with four points from three games.

In October, the Brave Blossoms faced Fiji, losing 34-28. Before that, Japan won the 2026 Pacific Nations Cup. They thrashed the USA 63-14 in the semi-finals before coming out on top against Fiji in the final, winning 20-15.

Japan will be aiming to pick up their second victory in the competition when they travel to face Wales, but they have suffered two consecutive defeats against their hosts.

Team News

Wales

Head coach Steve Tandy has highlighted that he wants his team to make a statement against Japan in front of their home crowd: "We're excited to be back at home.

"We want to go out there on Saturday, put our mark on the match and start the next phase in our Nations Championship campaign strongly."

Starting XV: 15. Blair Murray, 14. Louis Rees-Zammit, 13. Eddie James, 12. Max Llewellyn, 11. Josh Adams, 10. Sam Costelow, 9. Tomos Williams, 8. Aaron Wainwright, 7. Jac Morgan, 6. Alex Mann, 5. Ben Carter, 4. Dafydd Jenkins, 3. Archie Griffin, 2. Dewi Lake (captain), 1. Nicky Smith

Replacements: 16. Ryan Elias, 17. Rhys ‌Carre, 18. Tomas Francis, 19. Teddy Williams, 20. James ‌Botham, 21. Reuben Morgan-Williams, 22. Dan Edwards, 23. Louie Hennessey

Japan

Starting XV: 15. Kazuma Ueda, 14. Kippei Ishida, 13. Dylan Riley, 12. Samisoni Tua, 11. Inoke Burua, 10. Riku Kitahara, 9. Naoto Saito, 8. Jack Cornelsen, 7. Kanji Shimokawa, 6. Ben Gunter, 5. Warner Dearns, 4. Harry Hockings, 3. Shuhei Takeuchi, 2. Mamoru Harada, 1. Yota Kamimori

Replacements: 16. Kenji Sato, 17. Sojiro Otsuka, 18. Opeti Helu, 19. Michael Stolberg, 20. Tiennan Costley, 21. Kenta Fukuda, 22. Shinya Komura, 23. Jisu Lee

Verdict

Wales v Japan

Wales have had success against Japan recently and are tipped to cover the -15.5 handicap in their Nations Championship match.

Wales -15.5

Handicap

@1,91 - 3 Units

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Brad graduated from the University of South Africa with a Bcom-Management Accounting degree and has a financial background.

His love of sport has seen him venture down the road of researching sporting history for the past several years, specifically boxing, cricket and football.

Other sports of particular interest are golf, tennis, horse racing and motorsports.

Additionally, he spends his time researching the military history of his home country of South Africa.

He is an ardent Liverpool supporter and is known to DJ and release music on occasion.