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South Africa vs New Zealand 2nd Test Predictions - Springboks to bounce back and level the series

Ralph Staniforth

Editor

Last updated: 28 Aug 2026

Ralph Staniforth 28 Aug 2026

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Springboks set to bounce back after first Test defeat.
Key players return; prediction favors South Africa to cover -6.5.
Will Jordan is a top bet to score for New Zealand.

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South Africa must-win situation in Cape Town (Getty Images)

South Africa vs New Zealand 2nd Test Predictions

New Zealand take a 1-0 lead into the second Test of the series with the world champion Springboks desperate to overturn last week's result and level things back up.

South Africa vs New Zealand 2nd Test Predictions
Head to Head
South Africa Form
New Zealand Form
Team News & Lineups

The first test produced everything that we had hoped for but the Springboks were unable to make their dominance count, while the All Blacks, second best for large periods, took their chances on offer. I am leaning towards the Springboks turning it around this weekend in Cape Town.

South Africa have won 12 of their last 13 matches.
South Africa have won 5 of their last 7 matches against New Zealand.
New Zealand have won their last 8 matches (4 provincial).
New Zealand won the 1st Test of this series.
New Zealand's Will Jordan has scored 53 tries in 58 matches.

Head to Head

New Zealand have the overall lead with 64 wins and 43 defeats. There have been four draws in a total of 111 matches. South Africa have won five of their last seven against the All Blacks, but New Zealand won last weekend.

South Africa Form

South Africa were on a 12-match unbeaten run coming into this tour but that ended last week when New Zealand got the better of them at Ellis Park. That won't be too concerning for Rassie Erasmus and his charges, because the defeat, while by 16 points, was by tiny margins.

The Springboks dominated much of the match but failed to convert their opportunities while the All Blacks too advantage of theirs. But, given the scrum dominance by the hosts last week, New Zealand are in for a tough afternoon.

We knew the Boks would be undercooked last week, we said as much in our preview, but this week their are no excuses. The hosts need to show up and take their opportunities to build scoreboard pressure on the All Blacks.

New Zealand Form

New Zealand were excellent last weekend in the first Test. They fronted up physically and took their opportunities when they came around.

But there will be major concerns in the All Blacks camp considering how the Springboks dominated at scrum time. Regardless of the win, New Zealand will recognise the dominance South Africa had for large periods and need to fix that.

Should the game play out in a similar vein, one would imagine the Springboks win this comfortably. The All Blacks need to get parity at set piece, so that their dangerous backline can thrive.

Team News & Lineups

Rassie Erasmus named his side on Monday but there have been changes since. Handre Pollard has gone down with a calf injury which means Sacha-Feinberg Mngomezulu starts at 10 and Manie Libbok comes into the 23. Siya Kolisi is also fit and captains while Cheslin Kolbe has also been declared fit.

South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche.

Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Thomas du Toit, 19 Lood de Jager, 20 Andre Esterhuizen, 21 Cameron Hanekom, 22 Morne van den Berg, 23 Manie Libbok.

New Zealand: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Quinn Tupaea, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Leroy Carter, 10 Ruben Love, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Ardie Savea (captain), 7 Luke Jacobson, 6 Simon Parker, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Fabian Holland, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 George Bower.

Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Xavier Numia, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Patrick Tuipoluto, 20 Peter Lakai, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Josh Moorby

Verdict

South Africa v New Zealand 2nd Test

I am backing the Springboks to win in Cape Town, covering the -6.5 handicap. There is value, however, in Will Jordan to score for New Zealand.

South Africa -6.5

Handicap

@1,91 - 5 Units

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Ralph Staniforth is a South African sports journalist, editor and betting writer who has worked in sports media since 2012.

With a background in Sports Science, he has covered a wide range of sports and interviewed leading players and coaches across South African rugby, cricket and football.

His sports betting work covers both South African and international markets, combining his knowledge of sport with extensive experience analysing fixtures, teams, form and betting markets.

Ralph specialises in football and rugby, while also covering cricket, tennis and golf. His work includes match previews, betting tips, betting guides and broader analysis of the sports betting industry.

You can find more from Ralph at Muckrack and LinkedIn.