Turkey vs USA Predictions - Expect goals as Turkey chase vital win

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 1 hour ago

Ralph Staniforth 1 hour ago

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Turkey exited early despite high xG and domination.
USA leads Group D with strong, attacking play.
Betting tip: Expect both teams to score & over 2.5 goals.

Turkey fired 62 shots in two games but failed to score (Getty)

Turkey vs USA Predictions

Turkey have generated around 3.5 xG across their opening two games yet failed to score. I don’t think they will exit the tournament without breaking that scoring drought, and with the USA likely to rotate their lineup, we should see a high-scoring game.

Turkey have seen BTTS & over 2.5 goals in their last 4 matches against USA.
USA have seen BTTS & over 2.5 goals in 7 of their last 9 matches.
USA have seen over 3.5 goals in 4 of their last 7 matches.

Head to Head

After four matches, the USA and Turkey are level at 2-2.

Turkey Form

Even though they had 62 shots across the opening two World Cup 2026 matches, Turkey failed to score and have already been eliminated from the tournament.

The Crescent Stars had 1.36-1.18 xG, 72% possession and 30-9 shots in the opening round against Australia but still lost 2-0. Kaerem Akturkoglu missed a huge chance in the first half as well as Zeki Celik in the late stages.

They conceded after just one minute of play against Paraguay in the second round, then had one-man advantage for entire second half but still couldn’t find the net, losing 1-0. Vincenzo Montella’s side had 79% possession, 2.17-0.33 xG and 32-7 shots against the South American side.

USA Form

USA delivered two outstanding performances at the World Cup 2026 so far, claimed the maximum of six points and clinched first position in Group D.

The Stars and Stripes kicked things off with a convincing 4-1 victory against Paraguay, Folarin Balogun stealing the spotlight here by netting a quick brace. They finished this clash with 1.34-0.47 xG, 65% possession and 6-1 shots on target.

Another dominant display was witnessed in the second round in a 2-0 win over Australia, netting both goals in the first half through Cameron Burgess (own goal) and Alexander Freeman.

Turkey vs USA News & Predicted Lineups

United States (4-3-3) Matt Turner; Joe Scally, Mark McKenzie, Miles Robinson, Auston Trusty; Malik Tillman, Sebastian Berhalter, Giovanni Reyna; Timothy Weah, Haji Wright, Brenden Aaronson

Captain Christian Pulisic is recovering from a calf injury and won't be ready for this clash. Folarin Balogun and Tyler Adams are likely to start on bench here to avoid potential yellow card accumulation/suspension.

Turkey (4-3-3) Ugurcan Cakir; Zeki Celik, Merih Demiral, Caglar Soyuncu, Ferdi Kadioglu; Hakan Calhanoglu, Okay Yokuslu, Orkun Kokcu; Arda Guler, Kenan Yildiz, Kerem Akturkoglu

Turkey have no injury or suspension concerns ahead of this match. Baris Yilmaz had an awful appearance against Paraguay so I expect Karem Akturkoglu to be in the starting lineup this time.

Verdict

Türkiye v USA

Turkey will be aiming to bounce back after a disappointing early exit despite having such a strong squad, so I expect them to be highly motivated here. USA’s games have been full of action, making BTTS & over 2.5 goals my top pick for this one.

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