Melbourne Cup Carnival - Victoria Derby Day predictions

Simon Lewis

Editor

Last updated: 38 minutes ago

Simon Lewis 38 minutes ago

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The Derby has a genuine stamina question: Cormier, True Rebel and Murshidi are leading alternatives.
Rain could shift the Flemington going from Good 4 towards Soft 5.
Derby Day has nine Group races and three Group 1 championships.

Three Group 1 features open the Melbourne Cup Carnival, with stamina, sprinting speed and top-class mares all on show (Getty Images).

Race 1 - Unhinged (2)

Jockey: James McDonald | Trainer: Chris Waller

1600m | Group 3 Carbine Club Stakes | 12:20 AEDT

Unhinged arrives with a developing profile after back-to-back wins over 1400m, initially at Illawarra and then at Rosehill on 14 October. His latest success came by two lengths on a rain-affected track, a useful detail given forecasts of showers around Melbourne on Derby Day.

The step to 1600m appears logical and the Flemington straight should give him time to build into the finish. This is not a gift against improving three-year-olds, but the booking of James McDonald reinforces the confidence behind the selection.

Race 6 - Satono Glow (13)

Jockey: Ben Melham | Trainer: John O’Shea and Tom Charlton

1200m | Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes | 15:40 AEDT

Satono Glow has won twice this preparation, first taking the Cap d’Antibes Stakes at Flemington and then defeating her rivals in the Roman Consul Stakes at Rosehill. That record gives her an appealing combination of proven straight-track ability and high-grade recent form.

The Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes is a demanding sprint, with The Next Episode, St Gotthard and other rising three-year-olds bringing serious opposition. Satono Glow has already passed a key Flemington test and is the preferred win selection.

Race 7 - Stormy Marco (2)

Jockey: James McDonald | Trainer: Chris Waller

2500m | Group 1 Victoria Derby | 16:20 AEDT

Stormy Marco comes into the Derby after contesting the Spring Champion Stakes, a recognised stepping stone for three-year-olds heading towards longer distances. The $3-million purse has attracted a deep field and there is no straightforward answer to which runner will best adapt to the final 500m.

True Rebel brings a victory in the Moonee Valley Vase but faces questions at 2500m and a wide draw. Cormier is another important danger while Murshidi arrives off a determined win in the Geelong Classic. Stormy Marco is the tentative choice on staying potential and the ride of McDonald, with the barrier and track condition important late checks.

Race 8 - Lady Shenandoah (1)

Jockey: James McDonald | Trainer: Chris Waller

1600m | Group 1 Empire Rose Stakes | 17:00 AEDT

Lady Shenandoah returns to fillies-and-mares company after an authoritative victory in the Toorak Handicap at Caulfield, adding another major achievement to an already distinguished career. Her ability to quicken through a gap has made her one of the standout horses in the Empire Rose line-up.

Concorde Connie and Shadhavar both merit attention, particularly if the race becomes tactical. Lady Shenandoah has no previous Flemington victory in the current race profile but remains the class selection and seems to be the most likely winner.

Verdict

Melbourne Cup Carnival

I'm throwing my hat into the ring for wins for Unhinged, Satono Glow, Stormy Marco and Lady Shenandoah in a packed days of racing action on Victoria Derby Day at the Melbourne Cup Carnival.

Lady Shenandoah Win

Race 8

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Stormy Marco Win

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Satono Glow Win

Race 6

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Simon is a talented sports writer in South Africa with a strong focus on cricket having played first-team level for UCT, including playing at two Universities Weeks.

From a young age Simon was an avid reader of cricket magazines and books, and went on to be Editor of The Googly, CricketScene SA and SA Cricket, in addition to being a Features Writer on SA Sports Illustrated.

He has interviewed most of South Africa's premier cricketers and was the first writer to interview a teenaged Jacques Kallis.

Simon has also written about English and local football, rugby and cricket, in addition to major international tennis and golf stars and competitions.

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