Italy vs South Africa Predictions - Springboks set for comfortable victory over Italy

Ralph Staniforth

Editor

Last updated: 1 hour ago

Ralph Staniforth 1 hour ago

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Tip: Italy +28.5 handicap against South Africa.
South Africa have won 18 of 19 meetings, but Italy are stronger at home.
Italy's recent away losses suggest improvement is likely on home soil.

South Africa have won 18 of their 19 matches against Italy (Getty Images)

Italy vs South Africa Predictions

This round four clash in the Nations Championship is crucial to both sides, particularly South Africa who need to keep winning to retain top spot on the table. Italy's results earlier in the campaign were poor by their recent standards, but at home, they are more than capable of producing a competitive performance.

Italy vs South Africa Predictions
Head to Head
Italy Form
South Africa Form
Team News & Starting Lineups

Italy have lost their last 4 matches.
Italy have conceded 57 & 47 points in their last 2 matches.
South Africa have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
South Africa have won 18 of their last 19 matches against Italy.

Head to Head

Since 1995, Italy and South Africa have met on 19 occasions with South Africa winning 18 of those. Italy's only victory came back in 2016. They met three times last year (2025) with South Africa winning all three, 42-24 and 45-0 at home and 32-14 in Italy.

Italy Form

Italy have been very solid for the last four or five years, regularly getting strong results against more fancied sides. 2026 has been one of their poorer years recently, despite still gaining a few good wins.

During the 2025 Six Nations, Italy defeated Scotland and England on home soil while they ran Ireland very close in Dublin. They, however, lost to Wales and expectedly, to France.

In the Nations Championship though, Italy lost 27-10 to Japan, 47-17 to New Zealand and 57-10 to Australia. Those games were all away from home where Italy have always struggled to get results.

South Africa Form

South Africa currently lead the Nations Championship Southern Hemisphere table, ahead of New Zealand on points difference. The Springboks are the current favourites to win the tournament but they have a tougher Northern Hemisphere tour that their All Black counterparts.

This weekend is a must-win for the Boks who will also want to increase their points difference while the All Blacks face Scotland. In the following two weeks, South Africa clash with France and Ireland - two huge games for the tournament and in the lead-up to the 2027 Rugby World Cup.

The Springboks beat New Zealand 3-1 in the Greatest Rivalry tour earlier this year while they also defeated England, Scotland and Wales in the Nations Championship. However, in their last outing, the South Africans lost 42-38 to Australia in Perth with what was largely a second-string side.

Team News & Starting Lineups

Rassie Erasmus may have taken six uncapped players on tour but none of them are featuring this weekend. The two-time Rugby World Cup winner has opted for his strongest available side to gain some momentum ahead of the two big matches.

Italy: 15 Mirko Belloni, 14 Ange Capuozzo, 13 Paolo Odogwu, 12 Leonardo Marin, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Alessandro Fusco, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Samuele Locatelli, 6 Alessandro Ortombina, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Niccolò Cannone, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Giacomo Nicotera (captain), 1 Muhamed Hasa.

Replacements: 16 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 17 Danilo Fischetti, 18 Ion Neculai, 19 Enoch Opoku Gyamfi, 20 Ross Vintcent, 21 Manuel Zuliani, 22 Stephen Varney, 23 Tommaso Allan.

South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Morne van den Berg, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Salmaan Moerat, 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche.

Replacements: 16 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 Lood de Jager, 20 Cameron Hanekom, 21 Paul de Villiers, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Manie Libbok

Verdict

Italy v South Africa

While we fancy a comfortable South African win, we feel Italy will get withing the 28.5 handicap that is currently set, particularly at home.

Italy +28.5

Handicap

@1,91 - 4 Units

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Ralph Staniforth is a South African sports journalist, editor and betting writer who has worked in sports media since 2012.

With a background in Sports Science, he has covered a wide range of sports and interviewed leading players and coaches across South African rugby, cricket and football.

His sports betting work covers both South African and international markets, combining his knowledge of sport with extensive experience analysing fixtures, teams, form and betting markets.

Ralph specialises in football and rugby, while also covering cricket, tennis and golf. His work includes match previews, betting tips, betting guides and broader analysis of the sports betting industry.

You can find more from Ralph at Muckrack and LinkedIn.