Scotland vs New Zealand Predictions - Scots to get close against All Blacks at Murrayfield

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 1 hour ago

Ralph Staniforth 1 hour ago

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Tip: Scotland +8.5 on the handicap against New Zealand.
Last four meetings were decided by eight points or fewer.
Scotland have won two of their last three matches.

Scotland and New Zealand face tight contest (Getty Images)

Scotland vs New Zealand Predictions

New Zealand have never lost a match to Scotland home or away and they are favourites to maintain that record. However, Scotland are a very good side and probably should have beaten the All Blacks when they met last year. I am leaning towards Scotland on +8.5.

Scotland vs New Zealand Predictions
Head to Head
Scotland Form
New Zealand Form
Team News and Starting Lineups

Scotland have won 2 of their last 3 matches.
Scotland won 3 of their 5 matches in the 2025 Six Nations.
New Zealand have won 31 of their 33 matches against Scotland.
New Zealand failed to beat Scotland by more than 10 points in their last 4 encounters.
New Zealand have won their last 2 matches.

Head to Head

New Zealand have won 31 of their 33 matches against Scotland, twice matches ended level. Scotland have never won. The last four meetings between the sides have all been tight and by eight or less points.

Scotland Form

Scotland actually had a very good Six Nations but will be kicking themselves for a couple of poor performances. Going into the final round, the Scots were still in the running for the title.

The Six Nations began poorly for the Scots as they lost 18-15 to Italy in Rome before bouncing back to beat England at home and Wales away. They made it three wins on the spin with a sublime performance at home to beat France 50-40 before losing 43-21 to Ireland in the final round.

In the Nations Championship, Scotland were brilliant in their 47-38 win in Argentina before seeing off Fiji 33-17. Scotland then lost 42-28 to South Africa in what was a very competitive match for large periods.

New Zealand Form

The mighty All Blacks are back...or at least there are signs that they are on their way back after a poor and inconsistent spell under Scott Robertson.

During the Nations Championship, New Zealand narrowly escaped with a 34-32 home win over France before overcoming a tough first half to beat Italy 47-17. They concluded the home leg of the Nations Championship with a 40-21 victory over Ireland.

That was followed by the Greatest Rivalry Tour of South Africa where they won all four provincial games and beat the Springboks in the first test. However, the world champions bounced back to win three in a row and secure the series 3-1.

This was followed by two tests against Australia for the Bledisloe Cup. The All Blacks comfortably won both matches against the Wallabies, both home and away.

Team News and Starting Lineups

Scotland: 15 Kyle Rowe, 14 Kyle Steyn, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Sione Tuipulotu (Captain), 11 Jamie Dobie, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ben White, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Rory Darge, 6 Matt Fagerson, 5 Scott Cummings, 4 Gregor Brown, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Ewan Ashman, 1 Rory Sutherland.

Replacements: 16 Gregor Hiddleston, 17 Pierre Schoeman, 18 Will Hurd, 19 Max Williamson, 20 Josh Bayliss, 21 George Horne, 22 Tom Jordan, 23 Blair Kinghorn.

New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Quinn Tupaea, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Josh Moorby, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Wallace Sititi, 7 Peter Lakai, 6 Tupou Vaa’i, 5 Fabian Holland, 4 Scott Barrett, 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot.

Replacement: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 George Bower, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Christian Lio-Willie, 20 Anton Segner, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Timoci Tavatavanawai, 23 Rieko Ioane.

Verdict

Scotland v New Zealand

Scotland have pushed New Zealand close in their last four encounters and can certainly get their first-ever win if things go their way. However, with the handicap at 10.5, I am backing the Scots on the safer side.

Scotland +10.5

Handicap

@1,91 - 5 Units

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Scotland Win

Result

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Ralph Staniforth is a South African sports journalist, editor and betting writer who has worked in sports media since 2012.

With a background in Sports Science, he has covered a wide range of sports and interviewed leading players and coaches across South African rugby, cricket and football.

His sports betting work covers both South African and international markets, combining his knowledge of sport with extensive experience analysing fixtures, teams, form and betting markets.

Ralph specialises in football and rugby, while also covering cricket, tennis and golf. His work includes match previews, betting tips, betting guides and broader analysis of the sports betting industry.

You can find more from Ralph at Muckrack and LinkedIn.