Pakistan vs Sri Lanka ODI Predictions - Shaheen to lead Pakistan's victory charge

Simon Lewis

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Last updated: 28 minutes ago

Simon Lewis 28 minutes ago

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Pakistan won all three ODIs against Sri Lanka at Rawalpindi in November 2025.
Sri Lanka lost their September vs England 2-1 despite a Kusal Mendis century.
Can Sri Lanka end Pakistan’s four-match winning run in ODIs against them?

Shaheen Shah Afridi has figures of 3/47, 3/26 & 7/36 in his last 3 List A matches (Getty Images).

Pakistan are backed to win the opening ODI on home soil. Their 3-0 sweep of Sri Lanka at this ground last November along with a 2-1 series victory over Australia in June gives Shaheen Shah Afridi’s side a strong platform. Sri Lanka can threaten through Kusal Mendis and their spin attack but Pakistan’s pace depth is their key advantage.

Pakistan’s Babar Azam scored 102* vs Sri Lanka in the 2nd ODI at Rawalpindi in 2025.
Pakistan’s Fakhar Zaman scored 123, 115 & 31 in his last 3 List A matches.
Pakistan’s Shaheen Shah Afridi took 3/36 in the 2nd ODI vs Australia in June.
Pakistan’s Shaheen Shah Afridi took 3/47, 3/26 & 7/36 in his last 3 List A games.
Sri Lanka captain Kusal Mendis scored 121 in the 2nd ODI vs England in September.
Sri Lanka’s Dunith Wellalage took 3/49 in that 16-run victory vs England.
Sri Lanka’s Asitha Fernando took 7 wickets in the three-match ODI series vs England.
Pakistan have won 4 of their last 5 ODIs vs Sri Lanka.

Head-to-Head

Pakistan have won their last four ODIs against Sri Lanka. They won all three matches at Rawalpindi in November 2025 by six runs, eight wickets and six wickets respectively. Pakistan’s most recent win saw them hit 215/4 after dismissing Sri Lanka for 211.

Pakistan Form

Pakistan’s last five ODIs produced four victories and one defeat (W–W–W–L–W). They beat Australia by four wickets in Lahore on 4 June after bowling the tourists out for 157 before knocking off their target for the loss of six wickets. Shaheen took three wickets in that win while Shadab Khan took the side over the line with an innings of 29* on the back of 71 in the previous match.

With Sahibzada Farhan unavailable Fakhar Zaman and Saim Ayub must provide a solid opening partnership. Babar Azam will be crucial in the middle order alongside Ghazi Ghori and Salman Agha, who has scored 450 runs in the last 12 months. Arafat Minhas and Shadab Khan will be expected to accelerate the scoring during the closing overs.

Afridi will be relied on for making early breakthroughs alongside Haris Rauf, who has picked up 19 wickets in the past year. Abrar Ahmed and Naseem Shah will add value with the ball during the middle overs while Shadab Khan, Salman Agha and Arafat Minhas provide valuable additional bowling options.

Sri Lanka Form

Sri Lanka lost two of their three ODIs in England in September by margins of 89 runs and 223 runs, but they pulled off a 16-run win in the 2nd ODI. Kusal Mendis hit 121 as Sri Lanka posted 321/6 at Headingley, while Wellalage took 3/49 to restrict England to 305/9.

Their batting has potential although their collapse to 132 all out in the series finale at The Oval underlined a vulnerability against high-quality pace bowling. They also lost all three ODIs at Rawalpindi in November 2025.

Pathum Nissanka's absence leaves Lahiru Udara and Kamindu Mendis responsible for providing a strong start. Kusal Mendis has scored 463 runs in the last 12 months and is a vital anchor in the middle order alongside Pavan Rathnayake and Dasun Shanaka. Janith Liyanage and Dunith Wellalage will be expected to contribute valuable lower-order runs.

Sri Lanka's attack faces a demanding examination against Pakistan's powerful batting lineup. Ashita Fernando has been their leading wicket-taker over the past year and Sri Lanka will hope that he strikes early alongside Dilshan Madushanka. Eshan Malinga and Dunith Wellalage will look to restrict Pakistan’s scoring through the middle overs, supported by Shanaka, Liyanage and Sachindu Colombage.

Team News

Shaheen Shah Afridi captains a 16-man Pakistan ODI squad featuring Babar Azam, Fakhar Zaman, Haris Rauf, Naseem Shah, Shadab Khan and Abrar Ahmed. Mohammad Rizwan is not in the squad so the wicketkeeping duties will pass to either Muhammad Ghazi Ghori or Saad Baig.

Sri Lanka captain Kusal Mendis leads a 16-man group of players to the tournament, with Pathum Nissanka included subject to a late medical inspection.

Pakistan (possible XI): Fakhar Zaman, Saim Ayub, Babar Azam, Salman Ali Agha, Hasan Nawaz, Muhammad Ghazi Ghori, Shadab Khan, Shaheen Shah Afridi (c), Haris Rauf, Naseem Shah, Abrar Ahmed.

Sri Lanka (possible XI): Avishka Fernando, Kamil Mishara, Kusal Mendis (c), Kamindu Mendis, Janith Liyanage, Dasun Shanaka, Dunith Wellalage, Maheesh Theekshana, Asitha Fernando, Dilshan Madushanka, Dushmantha Chameera.

Verdict

Pakistan v Sri Lanka ODI

Pakistan are tipped to win with Babar Azam and Shaheen Shah Afridi my picks to star for Pakistan. Kusal Mendis and Asitha Fernando are likely to be among Sri Lanka’s top performers.

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Simon is a talented sports writer in South Africa with a strong focus on cricket having played first-team level for UCT, including playing at two Universities Weeks.

From a young age Simon was an avid reader of cricket magazines and books, and went on to be Editor of The Googly, CricketScene SA and SA Cricket, in addition to being a Features Writer on SA Sports Illustrated.

He has interviewed most of South Africa's premier cricketers and was the first writer to interview a teenaged Jacques Kallis.

Simon has also written about English and local football, rugby and cricket, in addition to major international tennis and golf stars and competitions.

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